GistReel
The exciting action on the Triple Crown schedule will round off at the start of June, as the Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga. A competitive field is already being assembled for the race in New York, which could see a Kentucky Derby rematch between Sovereignty and Journalism.
Both stars will have their sights set on doubling their tally of wins in the Triple Crown this year, and a positive performance over the 1 ½ mile trip could see the victor set as the early favorite for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
You can check the updated odds here: https://www.twinspires.com/belmont-stakes/odds/
But, which horses are likely to take their chance in the Belmont Stakes this year?
Journalism
Michael McCarthy-trained Journalism has already travelled to Saratoga ahead of a likely run in the Belmont Stakes at the start of June. The three-year-old was sent off as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby in May, but he could only finish an agonizing second behind Sovereignty.
However, he bounced back to winning form with a sensational performance in the Preakness Stakes, overcoming issues throughout the race before making a late sprint for glory to beat Gosger by just under a length.
Stepping up in trip should bring out further improvement, and he will likely be a short-price favorite if taking his chance in the Belmont Stakes to avenge his only career defeat, which was suffered at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
Sovereignty
A rematch of the Kentucky Derby looks set to be on the cards for Saratoga, as Sovereignty is an intended runner for the William Mott barn. Godolphin will be aiming for another unlikely double in early June, as they could complete an Epsom Derby-Belmont Stakes double.
In truth, Sovereignty could be a competitive favorite against Journalism, as he will have the fitness advantage after bypassing the Preakness. The three-year-old was excellent in the Derby at the start of May, beating Journalism by just under two months.
He looked more comfortable over an extended distance than he did when finishing second in the Florida Derby, and the step up to a mile and a half could yet bring out further improvement in this son of Into Mischief. Victory at Saratoga would vindicate the decision of connections to overlook a run in the Preakness Stakes two weeks after the race at Churchill Downs.
Baeza
John Shirreffs has already indicated that Baeza is an intended runner in the Belmont Stakes this year. Like Sovereignty, connections opted against a quick turnaround at Pimlico, as they believed that the three-year-old would improve following a break.
Baeza ran an extremely eye-catching race in the Derby, finishing third behind the top two contenders, but enduring a nightmare trip at Churchill Downs. However, the three-year-old will have something to find on Journalism after also finishing behind the Preakness Stakes winner in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.
However, he was beaten by three-quarters of a length at Santa Anita, and the period of rest could help him bridge that gap at the Spa.
Final Gambit
If Baeza was impressive in the closing stages of the Kentucky Derby, then it would be impossible to rule out a major performance by Final Gambit in the Belmont Stakes. The three-year-old was detached from the field in the Derby, before producing a stunning effort when being forced very wide in the straight.
He was never really on terms at Churchill Downs, but he finished just four lengths behind Sovereignty. Brad Cox has already indicated that the Belmont Stakes is the plan, and he should come on a lot following that first effort on the dirt.
Could once again prove to be a value play for connections that have a fine record in Triple Crown races.
Other Belmont Stakes Contenders
There will be a number of beaten horses from both the Derby and Preakness that will also take their chance in the Belmont Stakes. Among those include Heart Of Honor, who ran an excellent race to finish fifth at Pimlico despite making a slow start.
Preakness runner-up Gosger will also travel to New York after nearly pulling off the upset win in the Preakness. Rodriguez was an eye-catching winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes earlier this season, and connections are hopeful of a big run at Saratoga.
McAfee could yet be supplemented to add further quality to the field after finishing a decent second in the Peter Pan. However, he will likely need to reverse the form with Hill Road, as the Peter Pan Stakes winner is also set to take his chance in the Belmont Stakes this year.
Derby Winners vs Preakness Winner in Belmont Stakes
There is no guarantee that Sovereignty will prevail in a rematch against Journalism, as only one Derby winner has came out on top in 13 previous head-to-head meetings between winners of the opening two legs of the Triple Crown.
Since 1975, only Swale has won the Derby vs. Preakness matchup in the race when different horses have won the opening two legs. Last year, Mystik Dan and Seize The Grey both featured in the Belmont Stakes, but the final Triple Crown race was won by Dornoch.
